Disruptions in global fertiliser supply are exposing a long-overlooked weakness in agricultural policy. Yet, despite the risks, Africa has the resources needed to address this challenge, as highlighted by Julia Baum and Marvellous Ngundu in ISS Today.
Africa’s next food crisis may not originate on its farms, but far beyond its borders—along critical global shipping routes. Amid tensions linked to the Iran conflict, global attention has largely centred on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting energy price volatility. However, a quieter but equally serious threat is moving through the same corridor: fertilisers, which are essential to global food production.
Any disruption in fertiliser supply quickly translates into higher food prices and reduced agricultural output. Many African nations depend heavily on imports and lack the resilience to absorb such shocks. Domestic production across the continent still falls short of meeting rising demand.
That said, Africa is not without capacity. North and West Africa, in particular, hold significant potential due to vast phosphate reserves and natural gas resources. Morocco dominates phosphate production, supplying more than half of Africa’s total and ranking among the world’s leading exporters. Meanwhile, Nigeria, Egypt, and Algeria are key players in nitrogen-based fertiliser production, especially urea.
Globally, fertiliser production is closely tied to energy-rich regions, especially the Gulf. The Middle East serves as a central hub for nitrogen fertilisers, supported by abundant natural gas used in ammonia and urea production.
The Strait of Hormuz plays a pivotal role in connecting these production centres to international markets. Nearly half of the world’s sulphur—an essential input for phosphate fertilisers—passes through this narrow route, making it a critical artery for agricultural supply chains.
However, instability in the region is already taking a toll. Fertiliser plants in parts of the Gulf have scaled back operations or temporarily shut down. Even major producers such as Morocco’s OCP Group are feeling the impact.
A key constraint lies in sulphur supply, much of which originates from the Persian Gulf, particularly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. As disruptions affect these trade routes, sulphur availability tightens, limiting the ability to expand fertiliser production—even in countries with abundant phosphate reserves and stable internal logistics.
This slowdown carries broader economic consequences. Reduced output could weaken export revenues for Africa’s major fertiliser producers. Morocco and Egypt, which together account for about 70% of the continent’s exports, are especially vulnerable. At the same time, countries reliant on imports—including Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Zambia, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—face growing risks of food inflation and declining crop productivity.
The result is a twofold economic strain: exporters lose income while importers grapple with rising costs. This combination intensifies pressure on economies and heightens food security concerns.
Recent price trends underline the severity of the situation. Urea prices have jumped from under $500 per tonne before the conflict to over $700 in recent weeks. In South Africa—where around 80% of agricultural inputs are imported—grain farmers are experiencing cost increases of up to 35%. As a major supplier of packaged foods on the continent, these rising costs are likely to ripple through the entire food system, driving inflation higher.
Despite these challenges, Africa holds significant untapped potential. The continent possesses abundant natural gas reserves in countries like Nigeria, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Senegal, alongside major phosphate deposits in Morocco and Tunisia. Combined with growing demand for agricultural productivity, these resources offer a pathway to reduce external dependence.
Turning this potential into reality requires a focused strategy built on three priorities.
First, production must be expanded strategically. Not every country needs to produce fertiliser, but a group of nations with clear advantages could form the backbone of regional supply.
Second, market integration is essential. Without efficient cross-border trade, reduced transport costs, and reliable distribution systems, increased production alone will not improve access. The African Continental Free Trade Area provides a strong foundation, but it must be fully implemented to deliver results.
Third, fertiliser policy must go beyond manufacturing. A functional supply chain—including storage, blending, transport, financing, and last-mile delivery—is critical to ensure fertilisers reach farmers effectively. These areas also present opportunities for local innovation and entrepreneurship. Emerging agri-tech platforms like Hello Tractor and Apollo Agriculture demonstrate the potential, though such successes are still limited.
Complete self-sufficiency may not be necessary, but reducing reliance on external markets is crucial. Strengthening regional capacity won’t eliminate exposure to global disruptions, but it can significantly reduce the impact of distant crises on Africa’s food systems.
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